Case breakdown

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CardCruiser
Recommended AFLtcc Trader
Recommended AFLtcc Trader
Posts: 4410
Joined: 17 Mar 2009, 20:22
First Name: Leigh
State: Victoria
Favourite Team: Richmond
Cards I Want: 1966 Scanlens- Need-
3,5,6,7,8,10,14,15,16,18,26,27,28,30,31,32,35,36,
39,40,41,42,47,48,53,54,59,60,65,66,68,70,71,72
1967 Scanlens -Need 36
1968 Scanlens B- need 3,7,14,15,22,32,33,36,37

1970 scanlens-need 11 posters(Have Lilley St-kilda)

1973 Scanlens B –
NEED
Need all sticker emblems except for Geelong no.6

1974 NEED all sticker emblems except for Hawthorn no.7
Cards I Have for Sale: 1975-1994 set cards Scanlens,Stimorol,Regina,
Select inserts 1994-2016
Some teamcoach inserts
Many HS inserts from 2005-2011
Cards I want to trade: TAKE 5 needs/wants in one convenient 5 decade section browse below link

http://www.afltcc.com.au/forums/viewtop ... 86&t=16567
Location: Victoria

Case breakdown

Post by CardCruiser »

Heres my theory for breakdown..not proven but the maths seems to back it up.

MARQUEE theory-
This card appears at a 50% chance in a case and could realistically appear in any box making 13 big hits for that case.
There is no reason to suggest what other high end card may be with it in the box although it seems more likely
to be SC lightning boxes as there half the case..

THE REST
12 High end.

1 CP Coleman
1 PP Premiership
4 BP Brownlow
6 SC Lightning


The BANG appears in each box so isn't a discussion in this as it isnt a variable
its expected.
Barring anomalies ( 50% MARQUEE chance or strange ratio cases) this suggests-
I hit from the above in each box.

That is good and bad.

What does this mean specifically for anyone who did get a case.. Open a box and get the SC Lightning.
Nothing higher ratio is inside. Watch out for people dumping tampered boxes or loose packets with "subtle" ratio changes
of what to expect when opened.
in this case it means you get a "BANG" for your buck and maybe not even that. :?

I know I know. In this case :D A bang for your buck :) Mans got jokes.

Of course the reverse is possible and can be poetic justice.
I have a personal account of such a box being purchased online on ebay and a Captain signature being inside
when the seller was sure the ratio was all found. Cool card that 8)
Throw up your theories ,current info,bad experiences of strange ratio for this series and of course
a confirm hopefully of this theory so the forum can benefit from some knowledge as we all get into it.
Money talks but inserts Sparkle

SCANLENS 1975-89 BUY/SELL/TRADE
DEALS/TRADES

CHECK OUT THE NEW 1945-1960 cards needed section..
NEW FOR 2020

CardCruiser
Recommended AFLtcc Trader
Recommended AFLtcc Trader
Posts: 4410
Joined: 17 Mar 2009, 20:22
First Name: Leigh
State: Victoria
Favourite Team: Richmond
Cards I Want: 1966 Scanlens- Need-
3,5,6,7,8,10,14,15,16,18,26,27,28,30,31,32,35,36,
39,40,41,42,47,48,53,54,59,60,65,66,68,70,71,72
1967 Scanlens -Need 36
1968 Scanlens B- need 3,7,14,15,22,32,33,36,37

1970 scanlens-need 11 posters(Have Lilley St-kilda)

1973 Scanlens B –
NEED
Need all sticker emblems except for Geelong no.6

1974 NEED all sticker emblems except for Hawthorn no.7
Cards I Have for Sale: 1975-1994 set cards Scanlens,Stimorol,Regina,
Select inserts 1994-2016
Some teamcoach inserts
Many HS inserts from 2005-2011
Cards I want to trade: TAKE 5 needs/wants in one convenient 5 decade section browse below link

http://www.afltcc.com.au/forums/viewtop ... 86&t=16567
Location: Victoria

Re: Case breakdown

Post by CardCruiser »

There are some conflicting ideas from a few people. Thx for the feedback.
Can anyone confirm or deny a higher end card (NOT A MARQUEE) appearing in the same box where one of the big 12
was already discovered. For this potential scenario would give the current case format ratio a more "random" nature.
clearly good for some boxes and very bad for others.(nothing over a 1:36)

Otherwise I'm inclined to go with Option A which indicates the guaranteed dozen
are more structured and predictable.

If you are just reading this and thinking what is he going on about, please direct your
eyes to the original post above where the discussion begins. :lol:
I guess we just wait and see until they land in our homes and newsagents to clarify.
Money talks but inserts Sparkle

SCANLENS 1975-89 BUY/SELL/TRADE
DEALS/TRADES

CHECK OUT THE NEW 1945-1960 cards needed section..
NEW FOR 2020

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