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2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Scotty_WCE
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2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Scotty_WCE » 04 Sep 2019, 10:43

The first of the patch cards have just been revealed. Still not sure whether to grab a box but Lecca and Coniglio patch cards make it tempting.

Edit: not letting me attach a photo but it can be seen on Select’s Facebook page or YouTube channel. Apparently the rest of the previews to come are all sigs or patches, so hopefully some good stuff to come.
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CardCruiser
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1967 Scanlens -Need 36
1968 Scanlens B- need 3,7,14,15,22,32,33,36,37

1970 scanlens-need 11 posters(Have Lilley St-kilda)

1973 Scanlens B –
NEED
Need all sticker emblems except for Geelong no.6

1974 NEED all sticker emblems except for Hawthorn no.7
Cards I Have for Sale: 1975-1994 set cards Scanlens,Stimorol,Regina,
Select inserts 1994-2016
Some teamcoach inserts
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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by CardCruiser » 04 Sep 2019, 19:06

Trading very difficult as you aren't going to get many people
willing to split what they have as values will be difficult to agree on.
We are used to bad trading mistakes costing us $5 to $25 in value.
This could be an era where a 2 card exchange could be $100-$125 away from each other
revealed by the time ebay has cards coming out into the secondary market.
Its a new product type. Thats very exciting and also contains risk.

Here's an idea for future releases-
A 72 pack box worth around $300-$350 (Select we like opening packets ok?)

This is $500 worth of horror happiness elation and regret in one 15 minute package..

You know it makes sense.
Money talks but inserts Sparkle

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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Nightwatchman » 05 Sep 2019, 17:54

Due to the extreme cost it's hard to know how to approach this series.

Obviously no one will be out to collect a master set (surely?). And yet $500 for a "dabble" is a lot to pay.

I've been racking my brain over how to structure a case share that could actually see all participants get some cards they would really treasure, have some fun and get fairly rewarded.

Let's start with some maths. There are 24,000 cards in all (2,400 boxes x 10 cards). So far we know the identity of 18,115 cards. Here's what the breakdown looks like of those cards:

Commons -- 108 cards x 90 of each = 9,720 cards (odds: 4 per box or 24 per case)
Norm Smith Medallist -- 37 cards x 65 of each = 2,405 cards (odds: 1 per box or 6 per case)
Finals Folklore -- 17 cards x 70 of each = 1,190 cards (odds: 1 per two boxes or 3 per case)
Premiership Glory -- 30 cards x 40 of each = 1,200 cards (odds: 1 per two boxes or 3 per case)
Superstar Patch -- 18 cards x 70 of each = 1,260 cards (odds: 1 per two boxes or 3 per case)
Premiership Brownlow Double -- 36 cards x 65 of each = 2,340 cards (odds: 1 per box or 6 per case)

At a guess, the remaining cards are the signature cards (although don't discount a major hit card or series limited to fewer than 1,000 cards in total). There could also be a hierarchy for the sigs, such as the green/gold versions of Future Force.

Signature type #1 -- ?? -- could be around 2,900 (odds: slightly better than 1 per box or 7 per case)
Signature type #2 -- ?? -- could be around 2,900 (odds: slightly better than 1 per box or 7 per case)

Depending on how the signatures are organised, there isn't yet a "stand out" card type or subset. It might come down to teams and players when it comes to valuing the cards. Or personal preference over the design of a subset. Numbering will play a role of course.

On that basis, instinctively I lean towards a draft-style case share, using the snake draw method. That is, a case is purchased on behalf of six participants, and everyone commits $500. 60 cards are available. Using a randomiser, each participant is given a slot in the draft, and it works like this:

Pick 1: Participant A
Pick 2: Participant B
Pick 3: Participant C
Pick 4: Participant D
Pick 5: Participant E
Pick 6: Participant F
Pick 7: Participant F
Pick 8: Participant E
Pick 9: Participant D
Pick 10: Participant C
Pick 11: Participant B
Pick 12: Participant A
Pick 13: Participant A
Pick 14: Participant B
Pick 15: Participant C
Pick 16: Participant D
Pick 17: Participant E
Pick 18: Participant F
Pick 19: Participant F
Pick 20: Participant E
Etc

Feel free to comment on whether you'd be part of something like this but, of course, we really need to wait and see what's going on with those signatures before agreeing whether this sort of case share could work or not. And John would need to tick it off.

Mason264
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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Mason264 » 05 Sep 2019, 20:57

I was keen on this release until the previews started ,as with the dominance release everyone thought the limited to 60 cards etc were going to sell well ( me included) but unless you hit the popular teams they were a flop . This release needed to happen 5-6 years ago when the big collectors were around . I’m still interested to see the signature range but for me I’d rather see future force back .

I’ll just wait till the saints cards are up for sale rather then risk a 3k investment

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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Mason264 » 05 Sep 2019, 21:00

Nightwatchman wrote:
05 Sep 2019, 17:54
Due to the extreme cost it's hard to know how to approach this series.

Obviously no one will be out to collect a master set (surely?). And yet $500 for a "dabble" is a lot to pay.

I've been racking my brain over how to structure a case share that could actually see all participants get some cards they would really treasure, have some fun and get fairly rewarded.

Let's start with some maths. There are 24,000 cards in all (2,400 boxes x 10 cards). So far we know the identity of 18,115 cards. Here's what the breakdown looks like of those cards:

Commons -- 108 cards x 90 of each = 9,720 cards (odds: 4 per box or 24 per case)
Norm Smith Medallist -- 37 cards x 65 of each = 2,405 cards (odds: 1 per box or 6 per case)
Finals Folklore -- 17 cards x 70 of each = 1,190 cards (odds: 1 per two boxes or 3 per case)
Premiership Glory -- 30 cards x 40 of each = 1,200 cards (odds: 1 per two boxes or 3 per case)
Superstar Patch -- 18 cards x 70 of each = 1,260 cards (odds: 1 per two boxes or 3 per case)
Premiership Brownlow Double -- 36 cards x 65 of each = 2,340 cards (odds: 1 per box or 6 per case)

At a guess, the remaining cards are the signature cards (although don't discount a major hit card or series limited to fewer than 1,000 cards in total). There could also be a hierarchy for the sigs, such as the green/gold versions of Future Force.

Signature type #1 -- ?? -- could be around 2,900 (odds: slightly better than 1 per box or 7 per case)
Signature type #2 -- ?? -- could be around 2,900 (odds: slightly better than 1 per box or 7 per case)

Depending on how the signatures are organised, there isn't yet a "stand out" card type or subset. It might come down to teams and players when it comes to valuing the cards. Or personal preference over the design of a subset. Numbering will play a role of course.

On that basis, instinctively I lean towards a draft-style case share, using the snake draw method. That is, a case is purchased on behalf of six participants, and everyone commits $500. 60 cards are available. Using a randomiser, each participant is given a slot in the draft, and it works like this:

Pick 1: Participant A
Pick 2: Participant B
Pick 3: Participant C
Pick 4: Participant D
Pick 5: Participant E
Pick 6: Participant F
Pick 7: Participant F
Pick 8: Participant E
Pick 9: Participant D
Pick 10: Participant C
Pick 11: Participant B
Pick 12: Participant A
Pick 13: Participant A
Pick 14: Participant B
Pick 15: Participant C
Pick 16: Participant D
Pick 17: Participant E
Pick 18: Participant F
Pick 19: Participant F
Pick 20: Participant E
Etc

Feel free to comment on whether you'd be part of something like this but, of course, we really need to wait and see what's going on with those signatures before agreeing whether this sort of case share could work or not. And John would need to tick it off.
I think I read somewhere 2x signature cards a box but need to see what and who

CardCruiser
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1967 Scanlens -Need 36
1968 Scanlens B- need 3,7,14,15,22,32,33,36,37

1970 scanlens-need 11 posters(Have Lilley St-kilda)

1973 Scanlens B –
NEED
Need all sticker emblems except for Geelong no.6

1974 NEED all sticker emblems except for Hawthorn no.7
Cards I Have for Sale: 1975-1994 set cards Scanlens,Stimorol,Regina,
Select inserts 1994-2016
Some teamcoach inserts
Many HS inserts from 2005-2011
Cards I want to trade: TAKE 5 needs/wants in one convenient 5 decade section browse below link

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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by CardCruiser » 06 Sep 2019, 12:26

I love the stats and the numbers here.
the main issue in doing a case break is that it's $500 either way.
You buy your own box or you get random 10 cards for $500.

Plenty of us are prepared to take a risk on $200 for Dominance or second series but $500
hits the budget hard especially if you don't get many low print run cards
in a syndicate system..
I'd like to be involved but there needs to be more research.
I'm really on the fence on this one. I see the potential for
a great release but also a huge collector disappointment..

What about a multiple tiered system to break down the costs of a case/cases?

EG.
$1000-20 cards
$750- 15 cards
$500- 10 cards
$250-5 cards
$200-4 cards
$150- 3 cards

I'm not sure if you lock the highest buy in at $1000-Any more than that and you could have just bought your own anyway.
Also lowest at $150 seems very achievable for most and increases the potential of hitting super happy fun cards..
That may end up in buying 2 cases if we let people determine the level of finance
they want to be involved..Also support would be needed on forum to purchase
cards we get that we don't want to hang onto.. A good sample of these cards could be in the hands of dedicated AFLTCC
collectors and available for sale/trade between us first ..going onto ebay later would not be fun.

Thoughts people.. something like these ideas above or one of your own..?
Last edited by CardCruiser on 06 Sep 2019, 12:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Nightwatchman » 06 Sep 2019, 12:39

CardCruiser wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 12:26
I love the stats and the numbers here.
the main issue in doing a case break is that it's $500 either way.
You buy your own box or you get random 10 cards for $500.
I've just realised I didn't make the draft system clear enough, Cruiser.

The randomiser determines whether you are Participant A, B, C, D, E or F.

All six boxes are opened and the cards are published. Depending on your position in the draft, you get to choose which card you want from whatever's left at any point in the draft.

So if you are Participant A (and score draft pick #1), you get first choice of which card you want of all 60. To equalise the draft as best as possible, Participant A doesn't get to make another selection until draft pick #12.

Participant B gets draft pick #2 and their choice of the remaining 59 cards, and so on.

So it's not as random as buying your own box -- you hopefully end up with some cards you treasure.

I really like your idea too.

As Mason says, we really need to see the checklist and stated odds before agreeing on any particular approach.

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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Nightwatchman » 06 Sep 2019, 12:44

New preview released just now by Select.

Franchise Future Signature, limited to 70 per player. No mention of how many players, though, so can't yet update the series breakdown stats.

CardCruiser
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Posts: 4303
Joined: 17 Mar 2009, 20:22
First Name: Leigh
State: Victoria
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Cards I Want: 1966 Scanlens- Need-
3,5,6,7,8,10,14,15,16,18,26,27,28,30,31,32,35,36,
39,40,41,42,47,48,53,54,59,60,65,66,68,70,71,72
1967 Scanlens -Need 36
1968 Scanlens B- need 3,7,14,15,22,32,33,36,37

1970 scanlens-need 11 posters(Have Lilley St-kilda)

1973 Scanlens B –
NEED
Need all sticker emblems except for Geelong no.6

1974 NEED all sticker emblems except for Hawthorn no.7
Cards I Have for Sale: 1975-1994 set cards Scanlens,Stimorol,Regina,
Select inserts 1994-2016
Some teamcoach inserts
Many HS inserts from 2005-2011
Cards I want to trade: TAKE 5 needs/wants in one convenient 5 decade section browse below link

http://www.afltcc.com.au/forums/viewtop ... 86&t=16567
Location: Victoria

Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by CardCruiser » 06 Sep 2019, 12:47

Yeah that sounds interesting.. Thanks for your maths and running numbers for us..
is there scope for a case of each system?

Also,YES .
Checklist does change things in my opinion..some people would be player or team collectors..
And you want as many people to be involved as possible..
Money talks but inserts Sparkle

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CardCruiser
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Posts: 4303
Joined: 17 Mar 2009, 20:22
First Name: Leigh
State: Victoria
Favourite Team: Richmond
Cards I Want: 1966 Scanlens- Need-
3,5,6,7,8,10,14,15,16,18,26,27,28,30,31,32,35,36,
39,40,41,42,47,48,53,54,59,60,65,66,68,70,71,72
1967 Scanlens -Need 36
1968 Scanlens B- need 3,7,14,15,22,32,33,36,37

1970 scanlens-need 11 posters(Have Lilley St-kilda)

1973 Scanlens B –
NEED
Need all sticker emblems except for Geelong no.6

1974 NEED all sticker emblems except for Hawthorn no.7
Cards I Have for Sale: 1975-1994 set cards Scanlens,Stimorol,Regina,
Select inserts 1994-2016
Some teamcoach inserts
Many HS inserts from 2005-2011
Cards I want to trade: TAKE 5 needs/wants in one convenient 5 decade section browse below link

http://www.afltcc.com.au/forums/viewtop ... 86&t=16567
Location: Victoria

Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by CardCruiser » 06 Sep 2019, 13:03

Just a little point here..may or may not be major..

Snake draw draft selection..

participant A may select in 5 minutes.
The next one may need half an hour.
The possibility is that with choice the selection process
takes longer and longer.. would we all agree on a time period to choose
for each person or determine things differently?

It may or may not be an issue.
I still really like your idea too...
Also allocating cards based on their position in the pile wouldn't work as they are probably stacked in the same way every box?
Youtube will tell us this when he does a box opening..

Hmmm
Money talks but inserts Sparkle

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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Scotty_WCE » 06 Sep 2019, 14:56

Nightwatchman wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 12:44
New preview released just now by Select.

Franchise Future Signature, limited to 70 per player. No mention of how many players, though, so can't yet update the series breakdown stats.
The back of the O’Meara signature showed it was card FFS20, and given Hawthorn is the tenth team alphabetically it looks like there will be two of these per team.
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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Mason264 » 06 Sep 2019, 16:46

Scotty_WCE wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 14:56
Nightwatchman wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 12:44
New preview released just now by Select.

Franchise Future Signature, limited to 70 per player. No mention of how many players, though, so can't yet update the series breakdown stats.
The back of the O’Meara signature showed it was card FFS20, and given Hawthorn is the tenth team alphabetically it looks like there will be two of these per team.
Where did you see omeara ? Facebook preview is Rayner

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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Scotty_WCE » 06 Sep 2019, 17:43

Mason264 wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 16:46
Scotty_WCE wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 14:56
Nightwatchman wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 12:44
New preview released just now by Select.

Franchise Future Signature, limited to 70 per player. No mention of how many players, though, so can't yet update the series breakdown stats.
The back of the O’Meara signature showed it was card FFS20, and given Hawthorn is the tenth team alphabetically it looks like there will be two of these per team.
Where did you see omeara ? Facebook preview is Rayner
On Select’s YouTube channel they do video previews of each card (usually a different player to the one on Facebook). Here’s the link to the channel, the O’Meara can be seen in the most recent video: https://youtube.com/channel/UCg9yyP5qGejmr_-wASvIUBg
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Have 2074/2385 West Coast cards.
311 cards left to get!
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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Mason264 » 07 Sep 2019, 03:14

Oh ok cheers

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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Nightwatchman » 07 Sep 2019, 13:04

Scotty_WCE wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 14:56
Nightwatchman wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 12:44
New preview released just now by Select.

Franchise Future Signature, limited to 70 per player. No mention of how many players, though, so can't yet update the series breakdown stats.
The back of the O’Meara signature showed it was card FFS20, and given Hawthorn is the tenth team alphabetically it looks like there will be two of these per team.
That makes sense. 36 cards x 70 of each = 2,520 cards... ratio approximately 1:box

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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Mason264 » 13 Sep 2019, 18:11

So let’s get a verdict from the people ...
1) who is getting a box
2 ) case
3 ) just team cards
4 ) will not touch because prices are going to be to high on what they have produced

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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by tigerking » 13 Sep 2019, 22:02

Mason264 wrote:
13 Sep 2019, 18:11
So let’s get a verdict from the people ...
1) who is getting a box
2 ) case
3 ) just team cards
4 ) will not touch because prices are going to be to high on what they have produced
I'm thinking of getting a box.

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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Mason264 » 14 Sep 2019, 06:07

Personally I’m not to sure yet , hopefully they will release a checklist as final preview

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Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by Mason264 » 14 Sep 2019, 10:14

Did I just see a Jacobs signature patch book , wonder if Geelong fans will be interested :lol:

CardCruiser
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Posts: 4303
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State: Victoria
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Cards I Want: 1966 Scanlens- Need-
3,5,6,7,8,10,14,15,16,18,26,27,28,30,31,32,35,36,
39,40,41,42,47,48,53,54,59,60,65,66,68,70,71,72
1967 Scanlens -Need 36
1968 Scanlens B- need 3,7,14,15,22,32,33,36,37

1970 scanlens-need 11 posters(Have Lilley St-kilda)

1973 Scanlens B –
NEED
Need all sticker emblems except for Geelong no.6

1974 NEED all sticker emblems except for Hawthorn no.7
Cards I Have for Sale: 1975-1994 set cards Scanlens,Stimorol,Regina,
Select inserts 1994-2016
Some teamcoach inserts
Many HS inserts from 2005-2011
Cards I want to trade: TAKE 5 needs/wants in one convenient 5 decade section browse below link

http://www.afltcc.com.au/forums/viewtop ... 86&t=16567
Location: Victoria

Re: 2019 Select Supremacy discussion

Post by CardCruiser » 14 Sep 2019, 15:21

I am being scared off on the price Mason.
Money talks but inserts Sparkle

SCANLENS 1975-89 BUY/SELL/TRADE
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